According to en.wikipedia.org– There have been as many as 48 recessions in the United States dating back to the Articles of Confederation, and although economists and historians dispute certain 19th-century recessions, the consensus view among economists and historians is that “the [cyclical] volatility of GNP and unemployment was greater before the Great Depression than it has been since the end of World War II.” Cycles in the country’s agricultural production, industrial production, consumption, business investment, and the health of the banking industry contribute to these declines. U.S. recessions have increasingly affected economies on a worldwide scale, especially as countries’ economies become more intertwined.
The likely scenario in the case of the US would be different States or pacts of States having more control in their own matters than the Federal government.
So, each State of pact of States might be de facto sovereign entities without officially declaring for a a while until they feel confident enough to do away with the Federal structure and be officially independent.
Thats the only real division that can be politically viable.
The other divisions such as demographics, history and geography are too convoluted to organize effectively, so the only real way the US can balkanize, if it does, is through existing State divisions, or different pacts of States.
Even the red vs blue argument doesn’t hold much straw because most places are a mix or they’re just going along with whatever is the trend.
But, I just don’t see this happening for a very long time, if ever, or unless something really drastic happens to the country.
The US is quite united and coherent compared to many places, despite all the negativity and problems out there. The historical baggage is not the same degree as many places around the world, the geography is relatively safe compared to other countries, and Americans (anyone living or temporarily staying in the US) are highly mobile in their lifestyles because the society allows it.
So, even if the society seems like it’s about the collapse, a lot of people will end up gravitating to come together, because they’re so used to that high mobility life, where many activities can take place across the country, and the demographic/historical baggage isn’t deep enough to prevent them from doing many things compared to other places.
If the US was really gonna fall, you’ll see more signs of local politics taking more precedent over nationwide issues. You’ll see more and more people lose faith in American cohesiveness and exceptionalism. The Federal government would lose control over many things that are keeping the country together.
The stuff that’s going on now is still not to that level, despite the rhetoric.
At the moment, people don’t have that drive to break apart, but never say never, it can always happen, if need be.
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